104
施工技术
CONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGY
2012年7月上
第41卷
基于知识集成的地铁施工安全风险识别
专家系统研究
吴贤国"，张立茂"，余宏亮"，余明辉？
（1.华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院，潮北武汉430074； 2.华中科技大学系统工狸研究所，潮北武汉430074）
第368期
【描要］为解决地铁施工安全风险识别过程中，过多依赖专家参与、效率低、易出错等不足，采用专家系统技术对领域显性知识和隐性知识进行集成管理，通过风险及其致险机理分析辨识致险因子集，结合致险因子的属性状态经过知识结构化构建事实库，根据风险识别过程中的因果关系构建扩展产生式规则库，基于典型情况下风险结论可信度临界值进行风险潜在性评价，研究并开发了地铁施工安全风险自动识别专家系统，实现专家知识共享与风险识别自动化，具有推理准确、快捷、智能等优点。
【关键词】地铁；安全风险；自动识别；可信度；专家系统
【中图分类号】TU94+1
【文献标识码］A
【文章编号】1002-8498(2012)13-0104-05
KnowledgeIntegration-basedRiskIdentificationExpert
System for Metro Construction
Wu Xianguo',Zhang Limao', Yu Hongliang',Yu Minghui?
(1. School of Cieil Engineering and Mechanies, Huashong Unieersity of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei430074, China; 2. Research Institute of System Engineering, Huazhong Unieersity of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China)
Abstract; Traditionally, risk identification during metro construction relied too much on invited experts, which showed disadvantages such as low efficiency and susceptibility to mistakes. An expert system was developed in this paper for risk assessment in metro construction. In this system, explicit and implicit knowledge were firstly integrated. Risk analysis was performed to identify the risk sources, whose characteristics were structured to construct a database. Expansion rule database was generated based on the relationships between causes and consequences. Finally, risk assessment was performed based on the risk credit limit under typical cases. Compared to traditional method, this expert system makes it possible to share knowledge among experts and do risk assessment automatically. It has also got advantages of being accurate, quick and smart, etc.
Key words : subways; safety risk ; automatic identification ; reliability ;expert system
随着地下空间开发强度加大，地铁工程施工过理中事故频发。为保障施工安全，对地铁工程施工前进行风险识别工作具有重要意义(1)
国内外工程界在风险识别方面做了大量研究，已编写相应法规和规范用于指导地下工程风险管理工作[23]。目前地铁施工安全风险识别中运用的方法主要包括：检套表法（checklist）、模赖分析法(fuzzyanalysis）[4），事故树分析法（FTA）（3),R=P×
【收稿日期】2011-04-19
【基金项目］国家科技支撑计划（2006BAJ18B08-01）；武汉市科技局科研创新项目（200860423194）
【作者离介】吴资国，教授，博士生导师，E-mail：wig0220@126.com 万方数据
C方法、危害与可操作性研究（HAZOP）、失效模式影响分析法(FMEA)等。然而以往风险识别过程中主要存在2个方面间题：①地铁工程施工环境复杂，致险因子数量多，且完全依靠人工阅读整套施工图纸，导致风险识别难度大、效率低：②风险识别知识未系统化，识别过程过分依赖领域专家，专家经验性知识未能得到重复有效利用。
采用专家系统技术是解决上述问题的有效途径，它能够有效集成并管理相关领域知识，通过模拟专家的思维过程，快捷、准确、智能地解决需要专家才能解决的间题。近年来，专家系统技术在地铁工程领域内的应用不断拓宽，YuCW等人开发了地