第38卷第4期 2017年8月
文章编号：10013873(2017)04-0432-08
新疆石油地质
XINJIANG PETROLEUM GEOLOGY DOI10.7657/XJPG20170409
含水率预测模型的改进与应用
崔英怀，高文君，黄瑜，王谦，赵志龙，刘文锐
（中国石油吐哈油田分公司勘操开发研究院，新疆哈密839009）
Vol. 38, No.4 Aug.2017
摘要：Logistic含水率预测模型和Yu含水率预测模型是最为简单、常用的含水率预测模型，但由于其渗流特征不明、模型优选技术缺乏，尤其是模型中待定参数与动态参数和静态参数关系不确定，使得各种控水措施缺乏理论支持，并且含水率预测应用显得随意。为此，在Willhite油相相渗关系式及其改进式的基础上，结合艾富罗斯实验结果，导出了4种改进的含水率预测模型及其对应水相相渗关系式。
。这些改进的含水率预测模型在特定条件下，可转化为
Logistic含水率预测模型或Yu含水率预测模型，因面具务。
定的广义性。对4种含水率预测模型的含水率变化特征
进行分析认为，双曲式含水率预测模型适用于拟合“"形含水率与开发时间变化规律；指数式含水率预测模型适用于拟合"S"形含水率与开发时间变化规律；调和式和复杂指数式含水率预测模型既可报合“I"形含水率与开发时间变化规律，也可拟合"S"形含水率与开发时间变化规律。通过大庆油田萨北过渡带开发区块，平潮油气田H2油藏和雁木
西油田古近-新近系油藏的应用，改进的含水率预测模型报合精度高、效果较好，值得其他油田借鉴。关键词：水驱油围；含水率预测模型；改进；渗流理论；推导
中图分类号：TE341
文献标识码：A
ImprovementandApplicationofWaterCutForecastModels
CUI Yinghuai, GAO Wenjun, HUANG Yu, WANG Qian, ZHAO Zhilong, LIU Wenrui
(Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Tuha Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Hami, Xinjiang 839009, China)
Abstract: The Logistic model and Yu model are the most simple and commonly used models for water cut forecast, but both of the models have some flaws such as unclear seepage characteristics, the lack of model optimization technology, especially the uncertain relationships among the undetermined, dynamic and static paramelers in the model, which could result in the unsufficient theoretical support to water control measures and irrigorous water cut forecast. Therefore, based on the Willhite oil-phase permeability formula and its modified formu-la, and combined with ppoc's experimental results, four water cut prediction models and the corresponding water-phase permeability for-mulas are derived. The improved water cut forecast models can be converted into Logistic model and Yu model under certain conditions, so they will be generalized to some extent. The analyses of water cut changes predicted by the 4 models show that the hyperbolic model is suit-able for matching I-shaped variations of water cut with production time; the exponential model is applicable for matching S-shaped varia tions of water cut with production time; the harmonic model and complex exponential model can match both I-shaped and S-shaped varia-tions of water cut with production time. The application results of the models in the developed block of Sabei transitional zone in Daqing oil-field, H2 reservoir in Pinghu oil and gas field and the reservoirs of Paleogene-Neogene in Yanmuxi oilfield show that the improved models
for water cut forecast can make high-aceuracy matching and get good effects, which could provide reference for other oilfields. Keywords: waterflooding oilfield; water cut forecast model; improvement; seepage theory; derivation
含水上升规律、产量递减规律、油水运动规律通称水驱油田三大开发规律-}。其中，含水上升规律又可细划为含水率与采出程度变化规律(简称含水变化规律)和含水率与开发时间变化规律(简称含水率预测)。在油田动态分析和规划方案编制中，油藏工程工作者常利用含水率与开发时间变化规律预测含水率指标。国外于1962年提出Logistic预测模型时，只是应用于油气田可采储量的预测-，而国内于1984 年首次将Logistic模型用于含水率和水油比预测后19-，相继提出了Goempertz模型、Usher模型以及Yu 增长模型等含水率预测模型-。这些模型基本特点
收稿日期：2017-03-14
修订日期：2017-05-23
基金项目：中国石油科技重大专项（2017E-04-07）
是将经济、信息数学模型中的变量函数处理为含水率，直接得到Logistic含水率预测模型、Goempertz含水率预测模型、Usher含水率预测模型等，但模型中的待定参数物理内涵不清，渗流理论基础缺乏。倘若引入艾富罗斯实验结果或国内多数油田在中高含水期油水相渗比值统计为指数式，并利用Willhite提出的油相相渗关系式或进行适当改进，可以有效建立含水率预测模型"。为此，本文给出了4种含水率预测模型的具体建立过程，并以模型中自变量的基本函数进行了预测模型命名。这些模型在特定情况下，可以转化为Logistic含水率预测模型或Yu含水率预测模型，
作者简介：崔英怀（1968-）.男.陕西长武人，高级T.程师.泊藏T.程，（Tel)0902-2764240（Email)eyh2002@petrochina.com.en 万方数据