都市快轨交通·第31卷第1期2018年2月 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2018.01.002
“十三五”
《本刊特稿
城轨交通发展形势
及未来发展趋势分析
包叙定
摘要：通过调查研究，从城市轨道交通行业发展的全局和宏观视野层面，综合国家城镇化进程、社会汽车保有量和道路交通容量、国际大都市的公共交通承担出行比数据、中国特大型及大型城市的城轨交通规划和建设等多方面情况，全面、系统、深入地分析和阐述中国城轨交通发展的社会内在需求和环境背景；结合国家发展战略和规划、当代的前沿技术、城轨交通各种制式的适应性、行业技术发展以及地方财政和投融资模式等各种因素，深入分析中国城轨交通未来5年发展的机遇和挑战，预估未来5年中国城轨交通发展的十大趋势，即：规模扩大化、发展差异化、结构网络化、制式多样化、行业标准化、系统智能化、技术自主化、资金多元化、市场国际化、地
位战略化，并提出对策和策略，为中国以及世界其他国家的城轨交通发展提供重要参考与宝贵借鉴。关键词：城市轨道交通：多制式：互联互通：互联网+；智能化：一带一路
中图分类号：U231
文献标志码：A
文章编号：1672-6073(2018)01-0004-08
StatusQuoandFuture:DevelopmentofUrbanRailTransit
Duringthe13thFive-YearPlanPeriod
BAOXuding
eaeeeeaaasee eeeeeaaa modal share of public transport in international metropolises, and planning and construction of urban rail transit systems in China's large and extra-large cities, A comprehensive, systematic, and in-depth analysis and explanation of the domestic social demands and environmental background for the development of urban rail transit in China is presented. By using national development strategy and plans, information on current cutting-edge technologies, adaptability of various urban rail transit modes, industrial technologies and local finances, and investment and financing models, the paper expounds the opportunities and challenges in terms of the development of urban rail transit in China over the next five years and predicts ten major trends. The predicted trends include expanded scales, differentiated development, network structure, multimodal transit systems, industrial standardization, intelligent systems, independently developed technology, diversified funding. intemationalized markets, and strategic position. The current situation, development prospects, and future trends of urban rail transit in China are presented and corresponding measures and strategies are proposed. The findings can serve as an important and valuable reference for the development of urban rail transit in China and other countries.
Keywords: urban rail transit; multimodal; interconnection and interoperability; Internet Plus; intelligent systems; Belt and RoadInitiative
刚进入“十三五”的2016年初，笔者通过调查收稿日期：2017-11-29
作者简介：包叙定，男，中国国家发展和改革委员会原副主任，
中国城市轨道交通协会原会长。 URBAN RAPID RAIL TRANSIT
研究，从行业发展全局和宏观视野层面，提出了包括发展环境分析和发展趋势预估的“十三五”城轨交通发展形势报告，并根据行业发展情况，又陆续提出了“十三五”发展形势补充报告和阶段性回顾。现综合 3份报告，形成本文，以期全面、深入地反映和展望