doi:10.3969/j.issn.16715152.2013.11.005
SafetyinProduction安全生产
基于双曲型风险决策模型和GIS的
城市燃气管道风险评估华北科技学院建筑工程学院（101601）郭章林口河北工程大学经济管理学院（056038）刘彦香
口山东理工大学农业工程与食品科学学院（255049）宫亮
摘要：客观有效的进行城市燃气管道风险评估对于燃气企业的安全运行和科学管理具有重要的意义，
采用定量风险评价方法，利用收集的历史数据分析燃气管道失效概率、失效后造成的经济损失，使用双曲型理论及回归分析法建立城市燃气管道双曲型风险决策模型来判断燃气管道的风险可接受性，并根据GIS技术，以SUPERMAP为开发平台，将燃气管道风险水平进行可视化表达。在实例中应用双曲型风险决策模型和GIS技术，结果表明：在管道风险评估中，该模型与GIS的结合能够客观的反应燃气管道的风险水平，对城市燃气管道安全运行提供科学决策依据。
关键调：燃气管道回归分析双曲型风险决策模型地理信息系统可视化表达
CityGasPipelineRiskAssessmentResearchBasedonHyperbolic
RiskDecisionModelandGiS
Department of Civil Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology Guo Zhanglin
School of Economics and Management, Hebei Engineering UniversityLiu Yanxiang Shandong Uinversity of Technology, School of Agricultural and Food Engineering Gong Liang
Abstract : To achieve the safe operation and scientific management,it is very important for the gas enterprise to do the
objective risk assessment of city gas pipeline.The quantitative risk assessment method is adopted.Firstly, analyse the gas pipeline failure probability and the economic loss by using the historical data; Next, establish the city gas pipeline hyperbolic risk decision model to judge the gas pipeline risk acceptability by using the paadxa en s [ ad poa ske pe oa a using GIS technology and taking SUPERMAP as development platform.Examples show that the hyperbolic risk ad se a aaa aaaao ea assse aad aide ooa e po osaa risk and provide scientific decision for the safe operation of city gas pipeline.
Keywords:gas pipeline
visualization
万方数据
regression analysis
city gas pipeline hyperbolic risk decision model
GIS
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