Vol. 44 No. 5 Oet. 2017
矿业安全与环保
MINING SAFETY & ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
柔宗奎.底板突水突变机理及模型建构研究[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(5）：34-39 文章编号：10084495(2017)05003406
底板突水突变机理及模型建构研究
朱宗奎
（中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院，江苏徐州221116)
第44卷第5期 2017年10月
摘要：底板突水危险性的有效评价是矿山水害防治和实现安全开采的基本前提与重要基础。通过研究底板突水的突变机理，确定状态变量和主次控制变量，依据尖点突变模型建立平衡曲面方程，经坐标变换得到新坐标系下（状态变量、主次控制变量坐标系）平衡曲面方程的表达式。利用新坐标轴构建方程组求解平衡曲面方程的系数和新坐标系原点的位置，利用已知突水点信息验证求解结果的合理性。依据新坐标系下平衡面方程根的判别式，建立突水风险评价模型，并对新安煤矿二，煤底板突水风险进行评价，模型拟合率为100%，评价结果真实可靠。
关键词：底板突水；突变机理；尖点突变；风险评价模型建构
中图分类号：TD745
文献标志码：A
网络出版时间：201710-0916：15
网络出版地址：http：//kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/50.1062.TD.20171009.1615.020.html
Research on Catastrophe Mechanism and Model Construction of Floor Water Inrush
ZHU Zongkui
( Schoof of Resource and Geoscience, China Unirersity of Mining and Technology', Xuzhou 22IJJ6, China
Abstract : The effective evaluation on the roof waler inrush risk is the basic prerequisite and important basis for coal mine water hazard control and safe coal mining- In this paper, the state variables and primary and secondary control variables were determined by studying the floor water inrush catastrophe mechanism, based on the cusp catastrophe model, the equilibrium surface equation was established, and the equation expressions in the new coordinates were obtained by the conversion of the coondinates ( the coordinate of state variables and the coordinate of primary and secondary control variables). The equation group was constructed with the new coondinates and used to solve the coefficient of the equilibrium surface quation and the origin position of the new coordinales, and the rationality of the result was verified by using the known water inrush point information Based on the root criterion in the new coondinales, the water inrush risk assessment model was established, with this model, the evaluation was carried on the floor water inrush risk of No. 2, coal seam in Xinan Mine, and the fitting rate of the model was 100% , which proved that the evaluation results were true and relibale.
Keywords: floor water inrush; catastrophe mechanism; cusp catastrophe; risk evaluation; model construction
我国煤矿底板突水事故时有发生，往往会造成重大的人员伤亡与经济损失。自20世纪50年代以来，国内外学者提出了多种底板突水危险性评价的模型与方法，主要有斯列萨列夫公式法]、突水系数法[2]、GIS拟合模型法[3]、脆弱性指数法[4-5]等。这些方法在底板突水预测预报方面发挥了重要作用但限于矿井突水机理异常复杂，底板突水危险性评价仍有待进一步深人研究
收稿日期：201705-09;2017-08-17修订
作者简介：朵宗奎（1981一），男，江苏徐州人，博士，讲师，从事矿并水害防治方面的研究工作。E-mail；zhzk@ cumt. edu. en.
· 34 · 万方数据
突变理论是研究非连续性突然变化现象或过程的新数学分支，适用于描述由于作用力渐变导致状态突变的现象。煤层底板系统在面对突水威时，突水状态往往是一种从量变到质变的突变，其符合突变理论的基本特征。因此，应用突变理论对煤层底板突水风险进行评价在理论上是可行的[6-7]。
底板突水风险由突水威胁和底板系统自身脆弱
性决定，笔者将影响底板突水的多种因系区分为突水威胁因素和底板系统自身脆弱性因素。通过对底板突水突变机理研究，以期较为严谨地确定控制变量，这是使用突变理论研究底板突水的一个难点。目前，应用突变理论研究底板突水，多是建立在力学