Vol. 44 No. 1 Feb.2017
矿业安全与环保
MINING SAFETY & ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
黄欢，短亚东.运用偏最小二乘回归法计算导水裂缝带高度[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(1)：40-44 文章编号：10084495(2017)01004005
第44卷第1期 2017年2月
运用偏最小二乘回归法计算导水裂缝带高度
黄欢",23，姬亚东2,3
（1.煤炭科学研究总院，北京100013；2.中煤科工集固西安研究院有限公司，陕西西安710077；
3.陕西省煤矿水害防治技术重点实验室，陕西西安710077）
摘要：为克服导水裂缝带高度计算经验公式中仅考虑煤层顶板岩性和开采厚度所带来的误差，综合分析开采深度、煤层领角、开采厚度、走向长度、倾斜长度、顶板岩性等变量的影响，运用偏最小二乘回归法提取对自变量、因变量有强解释能力的主成分，建立了因变量与自变量间的回归公式。根据准南矿区走向长壁跨落式采煤中导水裂缝带高度实测资料，基于偏最小二乘回归法建立导水裂缝带高度预测模型，经辅助分析检验表明该模型预测精度较高，可以作为准南矿区相似条件下导水裂缝带高度的计算公式。
关键词：导水裂缝带；偏最小二乘回归；解释能力；交叉有效性检验；变量投影重要性指标
中图分类号：TD82
网络出版时间：2017-02-0709：57
文献标志码：B
网络出版地址：http：//www.cnki.ne/kcms/detail/50.1062.TD.20170207.0957.004.html
ApplicationofPartialLeastSquaresRegressionforCalculating
Height of WaterFlowing Fractured Zone
HUANG Huan'-2J,JIYadong.
(1. China Coal Research Institute, Bejing 100013, China;
2. China Coal Technology and Engineering Group Xi'an Research Institute, Xi'an 710077, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Preventing Coal Mine Water Hazard of Shaanxi Prouince, Xi' an 710077, China)
Abstract: To overcome the calculation errors of the development height of the water flowing fractured zone caused by the empirical formula in which the coal roof lithologic character and mining thickness were only taken into consideration, comprehensive analysis was made on the influence of the varables such as the mining depth, the coal seam pitch, the mining thickness, the length in strike and inclination and the roof lithologic character, the partial least squares regression method was uapuadap pe arqeey uapuadapu a o irqe Sugadaau Suons pey pr suauoduoa edouud a Supoea sg pardde variable, and the regression formula between the independent variable and dependent variable was established. Based on the
measured data of the development height of the
Huainan Coal Mining Area, a prediction model for the heigh least squares regression method. Auxiliary analysis
g fractured zonein longwall caving mining alongthe strike in
er flowing fractured zone was built by using the partial st this model had high prediction accuracy and can be
used as the calculation formula of the development height of the Huainan Coal Mining Area.
water flowing fractured zone under the similar condition in
aeeaoepesieaossasaeseadonae oaemso importanceinprojection
煤矿开采过程中，由于采动破坏了围岩原始应
收稿日期：2016-05-16;2016-1130修订
基金项目：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK04B04)；国家自然科学基金青年科学基全项目（41402220）；陕西省自然科学基金项目（2011JQ5015）
作者简介：黄欢(1988一），男，湖北随州人，硕士，从事
矿井水文地质工作。Email；huanghuan@cctegxian.com。· 40 ·
万方数据
力状态，使得煤层顶板发生变形乃至破坏，当这一破坏深度延伸至上部含水层时，极易引发突水事故。目前，许多学者对导水裂缝带高度进行了深入研究，认识到开采深度、煤层倾角、开采厚度、走向长度、倾斜长度、顶板岩性等对导水裂缝带高度有重要影响。