第30卷第1期 2018年2月
浙江水利水电学院学报
J. Zhejiang Univ of Wat. Res & Electric Pow.
D0I: 10.3969/j. issn.2095-7092.2018.01.015
新能源风光发电预测技术的发展及应用
张怡
（浙江水利水电学院电气工程学院，浙江杭州310018）
Vol.30No.1 Feb.2018
摘要：新能源风光发电具有随机性、波动性和不确定性的特点，对其实现准确预测对于电网安全运行意义重大从风力发电、光伏发电出力曲线特性归纳研究出发，总结了风、光发电出力一般规律特性，并基于此提出风、光预测的相关概念及一般性预测过程.进一步，遵循国际国内主要分类标准，按照预测采用时间尺度、预测对象、预测模型
测主要预测方法和应用情况，并总结介绍了风光预测适用误差评价体系标准，最后在上述总结阐述的基础上提出
风光预测可供进一步研究的方向和问题，为后续风光预测工作研究提供参考关键词：新能源；风力发电；光伏发电；预测
中图分类号：TM614
文献标志码：A
文章编号：1008536X(2018)01-0068-07
DevelopmentandApplicationofForecastingTechnologyfor
Windand PhotovoltaicPowerGeneration
ZHANG Yi
( College of Electrical Engineering , Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power , Hangzhou 310018, China) Abstract : The power generation with new energy such as wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation has the characteristics of randomness , volatility and uncertainty , and its accurate prediction is of great significance for the safe op -eration of power grid. Based on the inductive research of wind power and photovoltaic power output curve , the general rules of wind and light power output are summed up , and the related concept of wind and light prediction and general prediction process are also put forward. Further, following the main domestic and intermational classification standards , the main pre-dicting methods are classified in accordance with the predicting time scale , predictive object , predicting model principle and scope, and whether to use numerical weather prediction ( NWP). In this framework , the main prediction methods and applications of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation are summarized , and the applicable error evaluation standards are summarized. Finally, on the hasis of the above summary , the direction and problems on new energy power generation are put forward in this paper , providing reference for further research work.
Key words : new energy sources ; wind power generation ; photovoltaic power generation ; prediction
伴随《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》颁布实
施及节能减排工作强力推进，2006年以来中国新能源风力发电、光伏发电（以下简称风光发电)增长猛.大规模风光发电并网运行，其具有的随机性、波动性和不确定性给电网安全运行带来深刻影响，电
收稿日期：2017-07-12
基金项目：2017年浙江省水利厅科技项目（RC1758）
作者简伞张愉1977－），女，浙江舟山人，硕士，研究方向为新能源发电、龟匀繁据行与控制技术.
网安全运行与新能源大额消纳之间的矛盾日益突出.在这样的形势下，对光伏发电进行精细化管理、高准确预测，把风光发电纳人电网调度计划制定和实时运行管控，是解决这一问题的重要措施之一电网发用电实时平衡运行特性要求，必须配置足额匹配的旋转备用容量来应对风光发电不稳定性，备用容量的增加无疑将增加含风光发电的电网整体运营成本.通过对风光发电进行准确有效的预测