第38卷第3期 2017年6月
文章编号：10013873(2017)03030207
新疆石油地质
XINJIANG PETROLEUM GEOLOGY DOI:10.7657/XJPG20170308
Vol. 38,No.3 Jun.2017
珠江口盆地A油田储集层参数概率分布有效性检验及
油气储量评估涂乙，刘伟新，戴宗，万钧
（中海石油（中国)有限公司深圳分公司，广东深圳518000）
摘要：在围闭面积大且钻井资料少的区块，采用概率法计算圈闭资源量是最为有效的方法。首先采用A-D检验法、 K-S检验法和卡方(x)检验法对珠江口签地A油田各地质参数分布模型的合理性进行检验，同时采用地质含义以及美国石油工程师协会与美国证券交易委员会相关规定对储量参数数值分布进行有效性检验，建立适合A油图实际情况的参数概率分布模型。以A油田Z7油藏为例，根据上述方法和流程进行应用，考虑到Z7油藏圈闭展市形态呈马鞍状和并控程度较低，引入形状因子减小构造形态不规则对储量评估的影响。实例研究表明，概率法可获得各储量参数定量化祝率分布，有利于对影响储量变化因素进行不确定性分析，对地下油气资源量潜力和风险评价更为客观和全面，概率法计算的期望储量结采与Z7油藏确定性方法计算储量规模接近，二者储量误差不到2%，研究结果表明，使用本文储量评估方法对图闭面积大且钻井资料少的油截资源量评价具有一定指导意义。
关键词：珠江口盆地；地质参数；概率分市；A-D检验法；K-S检验法；卡方(x)检验法；储量评估
中图分类号：TE112.6
文献标识码：A
ValidityTestofReservoirParameterProbabilityDistributionandEstimationofPetroleum
ReservesinOilfieldA,PearlRiverMouthBasin
TU Yi, LIU Weixin, DAI Zong, WAN Jun
(Shenzhen Branch, CN00C China Limited, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China)
Abstract: For the districts with large trap areas and less well data, probability method is the most effective way to estimate entrapped pe-troleum resources. Firstly, the rationality of each geological parameter distribution model is checked with A-D test method, K-S test method and Chi-square (x) test for oilfield A in Pearl River Mouth basin. Meanwhile, the validity of reserves parameter distribution is tested with their geological meanings and related rules stipulated by SPE and SEC, based on which, a parameter probability distribution model suitable for oilfield A is established. Taking Z7 reservoir of oilfield A as an example, using the above mentioned methods and processes and consid-ering the saddle-like trap configuration and low degree of well control in Z7 reservoir, shape factors are introduced to reduce the influences of irregular structural shape on reserves estimation. The case study shows that quantitative probability distribution of each reserves parame-ter can be obtained by using the probability method, which is helpful for uncertainty analysis of factors influencing reserves estimation; and more objective and comprehensive evaluations on petroleum resource potential and risks could be made, The calculated reserves obtained from probability method and delerministic method are close to each other in Z7 reservoir, with the error less than 2%. The study shows that the reserves estimation method presented in this paper has certain guidance significance for resource evaluation in the districts with large trap areas and less well data.
Keywords: Pearl River Mouth basin; geological parameter; probability distribution; A-D test method; K-S test method; Chi-suqare (x) test:
reserves estimation
圈闭资源量的估算是储量评价必不可少的环节，通常用确定性方法和不确定性方法（概率法）进行资源量评估，不确定性方法（概率法)将各个资源量参数进行随机函数分析，根据对各个参数概率分布的结果，最终得到资源量的概率分布，是一种典型的风险分析方法。在勘探初期阶段，因受资料少以及技术条件的限制，无法获得准确的圈闭相关地质参数，需要借助不确定性方法对储量参数以及资源量进行分析
收稿日期：2016-12-19
修订日期：2017-03-17
基金项目：国家科技重大专项（2011ZX05023-006-03）
与评价，选择合理的数学评估方法直接决定着圈闭范围内的油气规模和资源量大小-5。在进行储量申报阶段，采用概率法对储量评估，关键点在于对数学检验方法的选取，合理的参数数据检验方法，结合地质认识以及标准规范要求，更能客观地评估各个参数数据对储量的影响.对储量参数以及储量进行不确定性分析更为准确，评价结果能更客观科学、全面地认识地下油气资源量分布，以及对储量潜力和风险认识更
作者简介：涂乙（1986-），男，湖北汶川人，T程师，硕士，油气田开发工程，（Tel)18825195766(E-mail)tuyi200605156@126.com 万方数据