doi:10.3969/j.issn.16715152.2014.06.007
白元等·新疆乌鲁木齐市高压燃气管网风险评估研究
新疆乌鲁木齐市高压燃气管网风险评估研究
口新疆维吾尔自治区安全科学技术研究院（830002）白元陈勇赖小林
摘要：针对城市高压燃气管线的安全风险，利用定量评估方法对其进行风险分析。建立了由管网脆弱
性指标、事故诱因指标、事故后果指标以及各指标的权重共同组成的定量评估指标体系。基于该定量评估指标体系，对鸟鲁术齐市50余条高压燃气管线进行了定量风险评估，为城市燃气管网安全管理提供数据支持，为建立预测预警系统和防灾减灾机制提供依据。
关键词：燃气管网理地管道风险评估
TheResearchonRiskAssessmentofHighPressureGasPipeline
NetworkinUrumqi,Xinjiang,China
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Urumqi Bai Yuan, Chen Yong, Lai Xiaolin Abstract : In recent years, as the project of changing fuel from coal to natural gas progress in Urumqi of China, a large
number of highpressure gas pipelines enter into the center city, bring huge risk to eity public safety, In order to quantitatively assess the risk of gas pipelines, the quantitative evaluation index system, which includes inherent risk index, causation index, consequence index and the weight of each index. Based on the quantitative evaluation index system, more than 50 high pressure gas pipelines were conducted quantitative risk assessment in Urumqi. The assessment results can provide data support for the management of eity gas pipeline network, and also can provide basis for establishing forecasting systems and mechanism of disaster prevention and mitigation.
Keywords：Gas pipeline
Buried pipeline
Risk assessment
乌鲁木齐市天然气管道自1991年起步，经过近20 余年的工程建设，乌鲁木齐的天然气传输和分配管道约3908.46km，其中高压管道的67.94km，次高压管道 191.53km，低压管道3589km。2013年天然气用户累计达到105.5万户，燃气普及率已达99%以上，全年天然气供应总量为23.13亿m"。近年来，随着乌鲁木齐市“煤改气”工程的推进，大量高压燃气管线进人城市中心区，城市燃气管道长度日益增长，城市燃气管
万方数据
道系统的安全问题也日益严峻，给城市公共安全带来巨大风险。
随着城市规模的不断扩张和旧城区的改造，乌鲁木齐市燃气管网很多已经运行了12年~20年，进入事故高发阶段，加之自然环境的变化和人为因素的影响，使天然气管道腐蚀、泄漏、破裂事故时有发生。本文针对乌鲁本齐市燃气管网现状，采用模糊综合评判法对乌鲁木齐燃气管网安全风险及评估进行研究，
2014/0G总第472期丨21