第35卷第5期
TECHNICAL ECONOMY 1>..* 123
基于EROI的中国未来油气净产出研究
刘键烨罗东坤王晓宇！闫霞’翟雨阳 1.中国石油大学（北京）工商管理学院，北京102249；
2．中联煤层气国家工程研究中心有限责任公司，北京100095
摘要：以往油气供应间题的研究多从最终能源总产出出发，没有考虑油气生产中的能源投入变化引起的能源净产出变化，面净能源产出才是最终被人类社会利用的能源总量。在对中国能测投入回报值（EnergyRetum onInvestment，EROI）计算与中国未来油气总产量预测的基础上，通过为中国油气开采业ERO未来走势设定不同情量，研究中国未来油气净产出。从总产量来看，未来中国油气总产量依然有较大潜力：而从净能源角度来看，油气总量的峰值与净能源的峰值并不重叠，油气总量的显性增高可能因为EROI的降低面造成实际上净能源的降低。因此，中国在关注未来油气总产量的同时，应窑切关注油气开采业的EROI及净产量，以合理规划未来石油开采量，并积极寻找高EROI替代能源。
关键词：能源投入回报值；净产出；总产出；油气供应 DOI:10. 3969/ j. issn. 1006 5539. 2017. 05. 023
TheResearchonChineseNetOutputofOil&Gas
in the Future Based on EROI
Liu Jianye',Luo Dongkun',Wang Xiaoyu',Yan Xia",Zhai Yuyang
1. School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Bejing, Beijing, 102249, China ;
2. China United Coalbed Methane Corporation, Beijing, 100095, China
Abstract: Most previous studies put their eyesight on the final energy output, instead of the net energy output caused by input in the whole system. However, net energy output is finally used by and benefit the human society. On the basis of the Chinese oil and natural gas production forecast and the EROI( Energy Return on Investment) computing, this paper will study the Chinese net output of oil and gas in the future by different scenarios. Studies show that from the point of total production, China still has great potential of oil and gas production in the future. But from the side of net energy, the peak of total production does not mate with the peak of net energy, the net energy maybe decrease because of lower EROI even with the total production increasing. As a result, China should pay close attention to the EROI of oil and gas industry and the net production as well as the future production, for planning the future production, and actively seek high EROI altermative energy resources
Keywords: EROI; Net output; Total output; Oil and gas supply
收稿日期：2017-01-01
基金项目：国家科技重大专项"煤层气高效开发及开发指标优化研究"（2016ZX05042-002-004）作者简介：刘键烨（1993一），男，重庆人，博土研究生，研究方向为油气资源经济评价。
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